tailodds FORECAST
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Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 7:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tue, Oct 6: Delta via Detroit, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 91% chance of reaching Las Vegas on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 57% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
AA 2149 American DCA 08:01 LAS 10:20 9% 3% 0.6% no record
WN 1402 Southwest DCA 16:37 LAS 18:28 16% 3% 0.6% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Las Vegas on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Las Vegas is 3 h behind Washington). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → DCA 06:07 → JFK 07:30DL 5802 · flown by Republic 4h 00m New York JFK 11:30 → LAS 14:01DL 807 10h 54m 100% 94%
DeltaDetails → DCA 06:00 → MSP 07:35DL 1193 3h 35m Minneapolis MSP 11:10 → LAS 12:26DL 2238 9h 26m 100% 93%
UnitedDetails → DCA 06:00 → IAH 08:13UA 1450 3h 42m Houston IAH 11:55 → LAS 13:13UA 1524 10h 13m 100% 92%
JetBlueDetails → DCA 06:21 → JFK 07:30B6 254 3h 30m New York JFK 11:00 → LAS 13:43B6 511 10h 22m 99% 91%
DeltaDetails → DCA 06:00 → DTW 07:29DL 2869 1h 30m Detroit DTW 08:59 → LAS 10:12DL 334 7h 12m 97% 91%
AmericanDetails → DCA 13:44 → JFK 15:09AA 4522 · flown by Republic 3h 00m New York JFK 18:09 → LAS 20:32AA 2440 9h 48m 99% 90%
DeltaDetails → DCA 06:00 → ATL 07:41DL 410 3h 19m Atlanta ATL 11:00 → LAS 12:02DL 466 9h 02m 99% 90%
UnitedDetails → DCA 06:30 → ORD 07:46UA 1793 1h 34m Chicago ORD 09:20 → LAS 11:11UA 2811 7h 41m 99% 90%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → DCA 17:55 → EWR 19:28UA 4180 · flown by GoJet 1h 00m Newark EWR 20:28 → LAS 23:06UA 1283 8h 11m 57% 42%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON