Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Tomorrow: DL 392 at 16:45 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 11–20%.

Safest bet that day DL 392 DCA 16:45 → LAX 19:19 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 75% on time Riskiest AA 3283 DCA 18:01 → LAX 20:41 · 20% chance 15+ min late · usually 70% on time

Against a calm day 14% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 15% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 392 Delta Flight history →	DCA 16:45	LAX 19:19	10%	3%	0.7%	75%
AA 1966 American Flight history →	DCA 08:40	LAX 11:19	11%	3%	0.9%	83%
AS 5 Alaska Flight history →	DCA 09:59	LAX 12:27	15%	3%	0.7%	71%
AA 3283 American Flight history →	DCA 18:01	LAX 20:41	20%	5%	0.9%	70%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	DCA 06:00 → MSP 07:35DL 1193	1h 45m Minneapolis	MSP 09:20 → LAX 11:10DL 2102	8h 10m	98%	90%
Delta Details →	DCA 07:45 → MSP 09:25DL 1493	1h 38m Minneapolis	MSP 11:03 → LAX 12:53DL 733	8h 08m	96%	90%
Delta Details →	DCA 09:00 → ATL 10:50DL 455	1h 50m Atlanta	ATL 12:40 → LAX 14:12DL 895	8h 12m	96%	89%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON