Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 10:00 AM ET · 15 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: YX 5843 at 06:12 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 11–25%.

Safest bet that day YX 5843 DCA 06:12 → LGA 07:36 · 4% chance 15+ min late Riskiest DL 5752 DCA 19:40 → LGA 21:04 · 25% chance 15+ min late · usually 48% on time

Against a calm day 17% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 13% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


YX 5843 Republic	DCA 06:12	LGA 07:36	4%	2%	0.7%	no record
AA 4403 American flown by Republic Flight history →	DCA 07:11	LGA 08:39	6%	2%	0.7%	90%
AA 4719 American flown by Republic Flight history →	DCA 22:37	LGA 00:00	11%	5%	0.8%	67%
YX 4366 Republic	DCA 10:04	LGA 11:34	11%	3%	0.7%	no record
YX 4546 Republic	DCA 11:19	LGA 12:45	15%	5%	0.7%	no record
DL 5772 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	DCA 08:15	LGA 09:33	15%	3%	0.7%	81%
YX 4636 Republic	DCA 17:35	LGA 18:59	18%	8%	0.7%	no record
AA 4730 American flown by Republic Flight history →	DCA 13:59	LGA 15:31	19%	8%	0.8%	62%
YX 4569 Republic	DCA 15:39	LGA 17:01	19%	6%	0.7%	no record
DL 5742 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	DCA 11:00	LGA 12:09	20%	5%	0.8%	75%
DL 5747 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	DCA 13:30	LGA 14:53	22%	7%	0.8%	67%
DL 5763 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	DCA 17:40	LGA 18:59	22%	10%	0.8%	51%
DL 5768 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	DCA 20:40	LGA 21:59	24%	9%	0.8%	54%
YX 4583 Republic	DCA 18:49	LGA 20:08	24%	8%	0.7%	no record
DL 5752 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	DCA 19:40	LGA 21:04	25%	10%	0.8%	48%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON