Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 5:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: WN 3143 at 06:59 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 15–18%.

Safest bet that day WN 3143 DCA 06:59 → MCI 08:48 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest OH 5423 DCA 19:59 → MCI 21:45 · 18% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 12% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 13% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3143 Southwest	DCA 06:59	MCI 08:48	3%	1%	0.6%	no record
AA 2853 American	DCA 07:39	MCI 09:40	7%	2%	0.6%	no record
OH 5472 PSA	DCA 13:51	MCI 15:32	13%	3%	0.8%	no record
WN 2678 Southwest	DCA 14:58	MCI 16:21	14%	3%	0.6%	no record
AA 9751 American	DCA 19:04	MCI 20:47	15%	4%	0.7%	no record
WN 2443 Southwest	DCA 19:53	MCI 21:30	15%	3%	0.6%	no record
OH 5423 PSA	DCA 19:59	MCI 21:45	18%	6%	0.8%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON