Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 AM ET · 6 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 1409 at 06:14 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 14–15%.

Safest bet that day WN 1409 DCA 06:14 → MDW 07:10 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 1413 DCA 18:44 → MDW 19:39 · 15% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 11% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 10% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1409 Southwest	DCA 06:14	MDW 07:10	3%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 2252 Southwest	DCA 09:39	MDW 10:38	8%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 4129 Southwest	DCA 12:02	MDW 13:02	11%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 1411 Southwest	DCA 16:27	MDW 17:25	14%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 2679 Southwest	DCA 20:57	MDW 21:51	14%	3%	0.7%	no record
WN 1413 Southwest	DCA 18:44	MDW 19:39	15%	2%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON