Today looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 26–29% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet today AA 5283 DCA 22:11 → MHT 23:48 · 26% chance 15+ min late · usually 58% on time Riskiest AA 5295 DCA 14:56 → MHT 16:40 · 29% chance 15+ min late · usually 62% on time

Against a calm day 27% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 26% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 1 flight that already left today is not shown.


AA 5283 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DCA 22:11	MHT 23:48	26%	9%	0.4%	58%
OH 5179 PSA	DCA 15:07	MHT 16:51	28%	9%	0.4%	no record
AA 5295 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DCA 14:56	MHT 16:40	29%	8%	0.3%	62%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON