Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 1:00 PM ET · 11 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: AA 1178 at 05:00 is the safest bet, 2% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 19–25%.

Safest bet that day AA 1178 DCA 05:00 → MIA 07:56 · 2% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest AA 582 DCA 19:02 → MIA 21:36 · 25% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 15% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 10% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1178 American Flight history →	DCA 05:00	MIA 07:56	2%	2%	0.6%	93%
AA 2344 American Flight history →	DCA 04:57	MIA 07:38	5%	2%	0.6%	96%
AA 401 American Flight history →	DCA 09:52	MIA 13:10	6%	2%	0.7%	93%
AA 422 American Flight history →	DCA 08:20	MIA 11:17	8%	3%	0.7%	84%
AA 1627 American Flight history →	DCA 11:55	MIA 14:38	13%	4%	0.8%	76%
AA 1612 American Flight history →	DCA 13:59	MIA 16:49	19%	8%	1.0%	62%
AA 2214 American	DCA 20:52	MIA 23:38	19%	9%	1.2%	no record
AA 1299 American	DCA 14:53	MIA 17:36	22%	8%	1.2%	no record
AA 973 American	DCA 17:48	MIA 20:41	22%	10%	1.2%	no record
DL 2576 Delta Flight history →	DCA 14:43	MIA 17:33	23%	9%	1.2%	67%
AA 582 American	DCA 19:02	MIA 21:36	25%	11%	1.3%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON