Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 2:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: WN 3154 at 07:59 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 17%.

Safest bet that day WN 3154 DCA 07:59 → MKE 09:03 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 5656 DCA 16:24 → MKE 17:36 · 17% chance 15+ min late · usually 66% on time

Against a calm day 12% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 13% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3154 Southwest	DCA 07:59	MKE 09:03	5%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 2850 Southwest	DCA 15:45	MKE 16:42	10%	2%	0.6%	no record
AA 5080 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DCA 20:49	MKE 21:56	17%	5%	0.8%	89%
AA 5656 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DCA 16:24	MKE 17:36	17%	6%	0.8%	66%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON