Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 4:03 pm at Washington); 3 already left

Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 2:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 10–16% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops today


AA 4523 American flown by Republic Flight history →	DCA 16:15	MSN 17:41	10%	4%	0.2%	95%
AA 5221 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DCA 21:10	MSN 22:28	16%	8%	0.4%	73%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Madison on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Madison is 1 h behind Washington). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	DCA 17:05 → ORD 18:30UA 654	2h 56m Chicago	ORD 21:26 → MSN 22:28UA 1251	6h 23m	95%	81%
American Details →	DCA 17:14 → PHL 18:16AA 5248 · flown by PSA	2h 06m Philadelphia	PHL 20:22 → MSN 21:43AA 5512 · flown by PSA	5h 29m	92%	78%
American Details →	DCA 17:25 → CLT 18:55AA 2182	3h 33m Charlotte	CLT 22:28 → MSN 23:42AA 1426	7h 17m	97%	70%
Delta Details →	DCA 18:59 → MSP 20:52DL 2963	1h 07m Minneapolis	MSP 21:59 → MSN 23:00DL 1599	5h 01m	80%	67%
Delta Details →	DCA 18:30 → ATL 20:35DL 850	57m Atlanta	ATL 21:32 → MSN 22:38DL 2144	5h 08m	75%	59%
American Details →	DCA 17:36 → DFW 19:42AA 1414	54m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 20:36 → MSN 22:53AA 876	6h 17m	79%	51%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	DCA 19:10 → ORD 20:32UA 1193	54m Chicago	ORD 21:26 → MSN 22:28UA 1251	4h 18m	70%	59%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON