Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 5:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: DL 1193 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 11–18%.

Safest bet that day DL 1193 DCA 06:00 → MSP 07:35 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 87% on time Riskiest OH 5652 DCA 15:25 → MSP 17:26 · 19% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 12% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 12% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1193 Delta Flight history →	DCA 06:00	MSP 07:35	4%	2%	0.5%	87%
DL 1493 Delta Flight history →	DCA 07:45	MSP 09:25	8%	2%	0.5%	81%
DL 2958 Delta Flight history →	DCA 12:00	MSP 13:41	9%	3%	0.5%	78%
DL 1523 Delta	DCA 14:50	MSP 16:31	10%	3%	0.5%	no record
DL 2963 Delta Flight history →	DCA 18:59	MSP 20:52	11%	4%	0.5%	74%
OH 5183 PSA	DCA 08:36	MSP 10:43	14%	3%	0.7%	no record
OH 5390 PSA	DCA 20:56	MSP 22:44	18%	6%	0.7%	no record
OH 5652 PSA	DCA 15:25	MSP 17:26	19%	5%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON