Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6 looks like a normal day here: all 5 nonstops are 9–17% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day WN 1283 DCA 11:51 → MSY 13:23 · 9% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 2683 DCA 19:06 → MSY 20:37 · 17% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 12% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 10% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1283 Southwest	DCA 11:51	MSY 13:23	9%	2%	0.7%	no record
AA 2586 American	DCA 11:23	MSY 12:56	10%	4%	0.7%	no record
OH 5274 PSA	DCA 07:51	MSY 09:46	11%	3%	1.2%	no record
AA 1788 American Flight history →	DCA 14:46	MSY 16:30	12%	5%	0.7%	64%
WN 2683 Southwest	DCA 19:06	MSY 20:37	17%	3%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON