tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 14–15% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
AA 2475 American DCA 14:21 OKC 16:19 14% 4% 0.6% no record
WN 739 Southwest DCA 15:26 OKC 17:22 15% 4% 0.5% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Oklahoma City on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Oklahoma City is 1 h behind Washington). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → DCA 06:00 → IAH 08:13UA 1450 3h 57m Houston IAH 12:10 → OKC 13:50UA 6180 · flown by Mesa 8h 50m 100% 90%
DeltaDetails → DCA 06:00 → ATL 07:41DL 410 3h 24m Atlanta ATL 11:05 → OKC 12:12DL 2020 7h 12m 99% 89%
AmericanDetails → DCA 04:57 → DFW 07:05AA 2007 3h 23m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 10:28 → OKC 11:42AA 3099 7h 45m 100% 87%
UnitedDetails → DCA 16:13 → DEN 18:25UA 746 2h 19m Denver DEN 20:44 → OKC 23:26UA 4727 · flown by SkyWest 8h 13m 96% 86%
DeltaDetails → DCA 10:16 → ATL 12:06DL 926 3h 09m Atlanta ATL 15:15 → OKC 16:22DL 2862 7h 06m 99% 86%
AmericanDetails → DCA 13:59 → LGA 15:31AA 4730 · flown by Republic 3h 28m New York LGA 18:59 → OKC 22:05AA 4526 · flown by Republic 9h 06m 98% 86%
UnitedDetails → DCA 08:20 → IAH 10:41UA 697 3h 54m Houston IAH 14:35 → OKC 16:15UA 6189 · flown by Mesa 8h 55m 99% 84%
UnitedDetails → DCA 12:59 → IAH 15:18UA 382 2h 54m Houston IAH 18:12 → OKC 19:53UA 5278 · flown by SkyWest 7h 54m 97% 84%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON