Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: DL 5608 at 08:15 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 25%.

Nonstops that day


DL 5608 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	DCA 08:15	OMA 10:13	8%	2%	0.5%	87%
WN 3036 Southwest	DCA 16:53	OMA 18:35	25%	3%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Omaha on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Omaha is 1 h behind Washington). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	DCA 06:25 → ORD 07:32AA 523	1h 58m Chicago	ORD 09:30 → OMA 11:18AA 3739 · flown by Envoy	5h 53m	97%	89%
Delta Details →	DCA 06:00 → ATL 07:41DL 410	3h 45m Atlanta	ATL 11:26 → OMA 12:45DL 1125	7h 45m	99%	89%
Delta Details →	DCA 17:45 → SLC 20:41DL 820	1h 15m Salt Lake City	SLC 21:56 → OMA 01:16 +1DL 3706 · flown by SkyWest	8h 31m	94%	89%
Delta Details →	DCA 06:00 → MSP 07:35DL 1193	3h 04m Minneapolis	MSP 10:39 → OMA 11:57DL 3838 · flown by SkyWest	6h 57m	99%	88%
American Details →	DCA 06:06 → CLT 07:37AA 1521	3h 27m Charlotte	CLT 11:04 → OMA 12:59AA 891	7h 53m	100%	88%
Delta Details →	DCA 12:23 → DTW 14:00DL 2476	2h 00m Detroit	DTW 16:00 → OMA 17:10DL 3889 · flown by SkyWest	5h 47m	97%	86%
Delta Details →	DCA 12:27 → ATL 14:15DL 380	2h 10m Atlanta	ATL 16:25 → OMA 17:48DL 2364	6h 21m	97%	85%
Delta Details →	DCA 06:00 → DTW 07:29DL 2869	1h 06m Detroit	DTW 08:35 → OMA 09:48DL 4055 · flown by SkyWest	4h 48m	96%	84%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	DCA 17:40 → LGA 18:59DL 5763 · flown by Republic	1h 03m New York	LGA 20:02 → OMA 22:02DL 4900 · flown by Endeavor	5h 22m	74%	61%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON