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Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 3:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 17:45, is the safest bet: 90% chance of reaching Ontario on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Ontario on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Ontario is 3 h behind Washington). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → DCA 17:45 → SLC 20:41DL 820 2h 18m Salt Lake City SLC 22:59 → ONT 23:48DL 1614 9h 03m 99% 90%
AmericanDetails → DCA 06:59 → DFW 09:25AA 1839 2h 59m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 12:24 → ONT 13:48AA 2635 9h 49m 99% 89%
DeltaDetails → DCA 06:00 → ATL 07:41DL 410 1h 40m Atlanta ATL 09:21 → ONT 10:38DL 665 7h 38m 98% 88%
AmericanDetails → DCA 04:57 → DFW 07:05AA 2007 3h 34m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 10:39 → ONT 11:55AA 2956 9h 58m 100% 87%
FrontierDetails → DCA 18:00 → DEN 20:07F9 689 2h 22m Denver DEN 22:29 → ONT 23:50F9 1261 8h 50m 97% 83%
AmericanDetails → DCA 07:49 → PHX 09:39AA 2006 1h 20m Phoenix PHX 10:59 → ONT 12:30AA 2661 7h 41m 94% 83%
AmericanDetails → DCA 13:44 → DFW 16:11AA 1177 2h 43m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 18:54 → ONT 20:26AA 2147 9h 42m 98% 82%
AmericanDetails → DCA 12:02 → DFW 14:26AA 1623 3h 20m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 17:46 → ONT 19:04AA 3006 10h 02m 99% 81%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON