Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · 24 nonstops

Tomorrow: UA 1793 at 06:30 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 6–20%.

Safest bet that day UA 1793 DCA 06:30 → ORD 07:46 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest AA 1189 DCA 16:55 → ORD 18:01 · 20% chance 15+ min late · usually 61% on time

Against a calm day 11% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 11% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1793 United Flight history →	DCA 06:30	ORD 07:46	5%	2%	0.7%	92%
UA 1061 United Flight history →	DCA 08:25	ORD 09:43	6%	2%	0.7%	93%
YX 4541 Republic	DCA 22:16	ORD 23:20	6%	3%	0.7%	no record
UA 2774 United Flight history →	DCA 09:30	ORD 10:50	6%	2%	0.7%	94%
AA 523 American Flight history →	DCA 06:25	ORD 07:32	7%	3%	0.8%	78%
AA 2304 American Flight history →	DCA 07:35	ORD 08:52	8%	3%	0.7%	83%
AA 522 American	DCA 11:17	ORD 12:24	9%	3%	0.7%	no record
UA 2803 United	DCA 11:54	ORD 13:06	9%	3%	0.7%	no record
AA 2633 American Flight history →	DCA 07:45	ORD 08:56	9%	3%	0.7%	87%
AA 808 American Flight history →	DCA 11:25	ORD 12:32	9%	3%	0.7%	90%
AA 2284 American	DCA 13:27	ORD 14:34	9%	3%	0.7%	no record
AA 2023 American Flight history →	DCA 10:25	ORD 11:30	9%	3%	0.7%	81%
UA 511 United Flight history →	DCA 13:00	ORD 14:18	10%	3%	0.7%	76%
AA 1221 American	DCA 14:51	ORD 15:55	10%	4%	0.7%	no record
UA 1888 United Flight history →	DCA 14:00	ORD 15:18	10%	3%	0.7%	71%
UA 351 United Flight history →	DCA 09:18	ORD 10:20	10%	3%	0.7%	88%
UA 1325 United Flight history →	DCA 15:30	ORD 16:52	12%	3%	0.7%	66%
AA 1637 American Flight history →	DCA 15:50	ORD 16:56	13%	4%	0.7%	74%
AA 488 American	DCA 20:14	ORD 21:12	14%	5%	0.7%	no record
UA 1193 United Flight history →	DCA 19:10	ORD 20:32	15%	4%	0.7%	58%
UA 654 United Flight history →	DCA 17:05	ORD 18:30	16%	4%	0.7%	50%
UA 2148 United Flight history →	DCA 18:10	ORD 19:32	18%	5%	0.7%	51%
AA 3148 American	DCA 18:31	ORD 19:38	18%	5%	0.7%	no record
AA 1189 American Flight history →	DCA 16:55	ORD 18:01	20%	5%	0.7%	61%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON