Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 18–22% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 5330 DCA 09:30 → ORF 10:39 · 18% chance 15+ min late · usually 68% on time Riskiest AA 5662 DCA 20:52 → ORF 21:57 · 22% chance 15+ min late · usually 59% on time

Against a calm day 20% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 18% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 5330 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DCA 09:30	ORF 10:39	18%	5%	1.0%	68%
AA 5509 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DCA 10:00	ORF 11:07	19%	5%	1.0%	75%
AA 5601 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DCA 16:01	ORF 17:09	22%	9%	0.9%	56%
AA 5662 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DCA 20:52	ORF 21:57	22%	10%	1.2%	59%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON