Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tue, Oct 6: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 93% chance of reaching Portland on time.

Nonstops that day


AS 9 Alaska Flight history →	DCA 17:16	PDX 20:04	10%	3%	0.7%	73%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Portland on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Portland is 3 h behind Washington). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	DCA 06:00 → MSP 07:35DL 1193	3h 24m Minneapolis	MSP 10:59 → PDX 12:40DL 1661	9h 40m	99%	94%
Delta Details →	DCA 06:00 → ATL 07:41DL 410	3h 19m Atlanta	ATL 11:00 → PDX 12:58DL 2206	9h 58m	99%	92%
Delta Details →	DCA 12:00 → MSP 13:41DL 2958	2h 17m Minneapolis	MSP 15:58 → PDX 17:35DL 2008	8h 35m	98%	92%
United Details →	DCA 06:30 → ORD 07:46UA 1793	1h 21m Chicago	ORD 09:07 → PDX 11:47UA 751	8h 17m	98%	91%
Delta Details →	DCA 06:00 → DTW 07:29DL 2869	1h 25m Detroit	DTW 08:54 → PDX 10:36DL 2171	7h 36m	97%	91%
Delta Details →	DCA 06:07 → JFK 07:30DL 5802 · flown by Republic	1h 00m New York	JFK 08:30 → PDX 11:36DL 1574	8h 29m	97%	90%
Delta Details →	DCA 17:45 → SLC 20:41DL 820	2h 09m Salt Lake City	SLC 22:50 → PDX 23:44DL 1373	8h 59m	98%	90%
Delta Details →	DCA 12:27 → ATL 14:15DL 380	2h 37m Atlanta	ATL 16:52 → PDX 18:56DL 503	9h 29m	98%	89%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON