tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tue, Oct 6 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 6–15% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
YX 4801 Republic DCA 17:13 PHL 18:27 6% 2% 0.6% no record
OH 5304 PSA DCA 13:38 PHL 14:48 15% 6% 0.7% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Philadelphia on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → DCA 06:00 → BOS 07:45DL 5710 · flown by Republic 3h 05m Boston BOS 10:50 → PHL 12:28DL 5805 · flown by Republic 6h 28m 100% 94%
DeltaDetails → DCA 06:00 → DTW 07:29DL 2869 2h 41m Detroit DTW 10:10 → PHL 11:46DL 2331 5h 46m 99% 93%
JetBlueDetails → DCA 01:56 → BOS 03:40B6 1854 3h 26m Boston BOS 07:06 → PHL 08:36B6 1159 6h 40m 98% 93%
DeltaDetails → DCA 09:39 → DTW 11:09DL 1558 3h 51m Detroit DTW 15:00 → PHL 16:43DL 1391 7h 04m 100% 92%
DeltaDetails → DCA 16:53 → BOS 18:40DL 5682 · flown by Republic 3h 19m Boston BOS 21:59 → PHL 23:53DL 5610 · flown by Republic 7h 00m 99% 92%
DeltaDetails → DCA 07:45 → MSP 09:25DL 1493 1h 44m Minneapolis MSP 11:09 → PHL 14:43DL 2679 6h 58m 97% 92%
AmericanDetails → DCA 09:40 → IND 11:39AA 4701 · flown by Republic 1h 57m Indianapolis IND 13:36 → PHL 15:37AA 5240 · flown by PSA 5h 57m 98% 92%
AmericanDetails → DCA 07:10 → CMH 08:51AA 4627 · flown by Republic 3h 54m Columbus CMH 12:45 → PHL 14:35AA 2253 7h 24m 100% 92%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON