Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 10:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 11–17% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 374 DCA 07:14 → PHX 09:35 · 11% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 3191 DCA 17:37 → PHX 19:23 · 17% chance 15+ min late · usually 62% on time

Against a calm day 14% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 19% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 374 American	DCA 07:14	PHX 09:35	11%	4%	0.2%	no record
AA 2006 American Flight history →	DCA 07:49	PHX 09:39	11%	3%	0.2%	92%
AA 1218 American Flight history →	DCA 10:00	PHX 11:44	15%	4%	0.2%	82%
AA 3191 American Flight history →	DCA 17:37	PHX 19:23	17%	5%	0.8%	62%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	DCA 08:00 → ATL 09:51DL 343	1h 11m Atlanta	ATL 11:02 → PHX 11:59DL 687	6h 59m	91%	79%
Delta Details →	DCA 10:16 → ATL 12:06DL 926	58m Atlanta	ATL 13:04 → PHX 14:06DL 366	6h 50m	85%	74%
United Details →	DCA 16:13 → DEN 18:25UA 746	49m Denver	DEN 19:14 → PHX 20:16UA 1507	7h 03m	84%	68%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON