Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 6:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Tomorrow: AA 4446 at 08:53 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 12–19%.

Safest bet that day AA 4446 DCA 08:53 → PIT 10:09 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time Riskiest OH 5095 DCA 17:18 → PIT 18:33 · 19% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 13% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 11% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 4446 American flown by Republic Flight history →	DCA 08:53	PIT 10:09	8%	2%	0.6%	88%
YX 4470 Republic	DCA 12:48	PIT 14:05	9%	2%	0.6%	no record
AA 4763 American flown by Republic Flight history →	DCA 20:35	PIT 21:45	12%	2%	0.7%	69%
OH 5402 PSA	DCA 07:44	PIT 09:09	13%	3%	0.9%	no record
AA 5094 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DCA 16:42	PIT 18:05	16%	4%	0.8%	82%
OH 5095 PSA	DCA 17:18	PIT 18:33	19%	4%	0.8%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON