Today: OH 5449 at 08:27 is the safest bet, 24% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 25–40%.

Safest bet today OH 5449 DCA 08:27 → PNS 10:15 · 24% chance 15+ min late Riskiest OH 5139 DCA 15:32 → PNS 17:02 · 40% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 32% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 26% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


OH 5449 PSA	DCA 08:27	PNS 10:15	24%	6%	1.1%	no record
AA 5599 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DCA 08:20	PNS 09:52	25%	6%	1.0%	83%
AA 5544 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DCA 18:01	PNS 19:31	39%	13%	1.2%	59%
OH 5139 PSA	DCA 15:32	PNS 17:02	40%	11%	1.2%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON