Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 8 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 3039 at 09:29 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 8–16%.

Safest bet that day WN 3039 DCA 09:29 → PVD 10:58 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 5438 DCA 18:35 → PVD 20:00 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 59% on time

Against a calm day 8% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 9% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3039 Southwest	DCA 09:29	PVD 10:58	5%	1%	0.6%	no record
AA 2641 American	DCA 12:55	PVD 14:25	6%	3%	0.6%	no record
AA 5619 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DCA 09:59	PVD 11:31	6%	2%	0.7%	88%
OH 5177 PSA	DCA 07:07	PVD 08:44	6%	2%	0.8%	no record
AA 2552 American	DCA 22:31	PVD 00:00	8%	2%	0.7%	no record
WN 3259 Southwest	DCA 16:55	PVD 18:16	10%	2%	0.5%	no record
OH 5173 PSA	DCA 14:54	PVD 16:29	10%	4%	0.7%	no record
AA 5438 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DCA 18:35	PVD 20:00	16%	5%	0.8%	59%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON