Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · 3 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 14–18% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 1423 DCA 14:34 → PWM 16:25 · 14% chance 15+ min late · usually 87% on time Riskiest AA 2978 DCA 21:55 → PWM 23:39 · 18% chance 15+ min late · usually 60% on time

Against a calm day 15% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 14% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1423 American Flight history →	DCA 14:34	PWM 16:25	14%	5%	0.6%	87%
AA 5528 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DCA 09:59	PWM 11:52	15%	4%	0.7%	81%
AA 2978 American Flight history →	DCA 21:55	PWM 23:39	18%	6%	0.7%	60%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON