Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 4:00 AM ET · 9 nonstops

Tomorrow: AA 5627 at 08:37 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 17–28%.

Safest bet that day AA 5627 DCA 08:37 → RDU 10:01 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 95% on time Riskiest AA 5404 DCA 16:21 → RDU 17:29 · 28% chance 15+ min late · usually 57% on time

Against a calm day 19% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 18% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


AA 5627 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DCA 08:37	RDU 10:01	11%	4%	0.8%	95%
MQ 4053 Envoy	DCA 14:00	RDU 15:09	15%	3%	0.7%	no record
AA 5626 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DCA 12:09	RDU 13:27	16%	6%	0.8%	76%
AA 4029 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DCA 18:09	RDU 19:21	17%	5%	0.7%	55%
AA 2083 American Flight history →	DCA 20:00	RDU 21:12	25%	8%	0.7%	57%
AA 5404 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DCA 16:21	RDU 17:29	28%	8%	0.8%	57%
DL 5269 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	DCA 07:59	RDU 09:09	14%	6%	1.4%	86%
DL 5322 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	DCA 17:47	RDU 19:21	37%	14%	2.5%	63%
DL 5428 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	DCA 22:05	RDU 23:19	40%	16%	7.7%	60%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON