Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 18–24% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day OH 5144 DCA 08:57 → ROC 10:22 · 18% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 5344 DCA 22:12 → ROC 23:37 · 24% chance 15+ min late · usually 63% on time

Against a calm day 20% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 22% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


OH 5144 PSA	DCA 08:57	ROC 10:22	18%	4%	0.7%	no record
OH 5027 PSA	DCA 09:42	ROC 11:07	18%	5%	0.7%	no record
AA 5457 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DCA 15:35	ROC 17:11	22%	6%	0.7%	75%
AA 5344 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DCA 22:12	ROC 23:37	24%	8%	0.8%	63%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON