tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: American via Charlotte, leaving 06:08, is the safest bet: 83% chance of reaching Fort Myers on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 54% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
AA 2916 American Flight history → DCA 08:07 RSW 11:09 11% 3% 2.1% 70%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Fort Myers on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → DCA 06:30 → ORD 07:46UA 1793 1h 23m Chicago ORD 09:09 → RSW 13:10UA 1036 6h 40m 98% 88%
DeltaDetails → DCA 06:00 → MSP 07:35DL 1193 1h 30m Minneapolis MSP 09:05 → RSW 13:27DL 2400 7h 27m 98% 86%
UnitedDetails → DCA 06:00 → IAH 08:13UA 1450 1h 19m Houston IAH 09:32 → RSW 13:14UA 494 7h 14m 98% 86%
DeltaDetails → DCA 09:39 → DTW 11:09DL 1558 3h 19m Detroit DTW 14:28 → RSW 17:22DL 1225 7h 43m 99% 86%
JetBlueDetails → DCA 01:56 → BOS 03:40B6 1854 3h 05m Boston BOS 06:45 → RSW 10:12B6 165 8h 16m 98% 86%
DeltaDetails → DCA 06:00 → DTW 07:29DL 2869 1h 11m Detroit DTW 08:40 → RSW 11:39DL 2001 5h 39m 96% 85%
DeltaDetails → DCA 06:00 → ATL 07:41DL 410 2h 44m Atlanta ATL 10:25 → RSW 12:11DL 1153 6h 11m 99% 84%
UnitedDetails → DCA 08:25 → ORD 09:43UA 1061 1h 17m Chicago ORD 11:00 → RSW 14:51UA 2137 6h 26m 96% 84%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → DCA 13:00 → EWR 14:22UA 4442 · flown by GoJet 1h 11m Newark EWR 15:33 → RSW 18:36UA 1832 5h 36m 71% 55%
UnitedDetails → DCA 16:30 → EWR 18:03UA 4401 · flown by GoJet 57m Newark EWR 19:00 → RSW 22:13UA 8178 5h 43m 54% 40%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON