tailodds FORECAST
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Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 09:00, is the safest bet: 81% chance of reaching San Diego on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 72% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
AS 15 Alaska Flight history → DCA 11:14 SAN 13:10 18% 2% 0.7% 72%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Diego on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Diego is 3 h behind Washington). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → DCA 06:07 → JFK 07:30DL 5802 · flown by Republic 1h 25m New York JFK 08:55 → SAN 11:55DL 683 8h 48m 99% 91%
DeltaDetails → DCA 06:00 → MSP 07:35DL 1193 1h 16m Minneapolis MSP 08:51 → SAN 10:38DL 2121 7h 38m 97% 90%
DeltaDetails → DCA 16:45 → LAX 19:19DL 392 3h 26m Los Angeles LAX 22:45 → SAN 23:42DL 3746 · flown by SkyWest 9h 57m 98% 90%
DeltaDetails → DCA 07:45 → MSP 09:25DL 1493 2h 13m Minneapolis MSP 11:38 → SAN 13:24DL 2125 8h 39m 98% 90%
JetBlueDetails → DCA 11:00 → BOS 12:35B6 2454 3h 45m Boston BOS 16:20 → SAN 19:27B6 319 11h 27m 99% 88%
DeltaDetails → DCA 06:00 → ATL 07:41DL 410 2h 23m Atlanta ATL 10:04 → SAN 11:43DL 843 8h 43m 99% 87%
UnitedDetails → DCA 06:30 → ORD 07:46UA 1793 1h 00m Chicago ORD 08:46 → SAN 11:21UA 660 7h 51m 95% 87%
AmericanDetails → DCA 06:15 → CLT 07:49AA 1521 3h 26m Charlotte CLT 11:15 → SAN 13:05AA 466 9h 50m 100% 87%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → DCA 16:30 → EWR 18:03UA 4401 · flown by GoJet 1h 32m Newark EWR 19:35 → SAN 22:33UA 1102 9h 03m 72% 55%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON