Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 10:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: one nonstop, AA 1947 at 16:59, with a 22% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


AA 1947 American Flight history →	DCA 16:59	SAT 19:40	22%	8%	0.6%	57%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Antonio on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Antonio is 1 h behind Washington). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	DCA 06:30 → ORD 07:46UA 1793	1h 39m Chicago	ORD 09:25 → SAT 12:29UA 490	6h 59m	99%	90%
American Details →	DCA 10:25 → ORD 11:30AA 2023	3h 33m Chicago	ORD 15:03 → SAT 18:03AA 4176 · flown by Envoy	8h 38m	99%	89%
Delta Details →	DCA 06:00 → MSP 07:35DL 1193	1h 25m Minneapolis	MSP 09:00 → SAT 11:49DL 2667	6h 49m	97%	89%
Delta Details →	DCA 09:39 → DTW 11:09DL 1558	2h 32m Detroit	DTW 13:41 → SAT 15:51DL 2458	7h 12m	99%	88%
Delta Details →	DCA 08:00 → ATL 09:51DL 343	2h 24m Atlanta	ATL 12:15 → SAT 13:38DL 1408	6h 38m	97%	88%
American Details →	DCA 06:06 → CLT 07:38AA 1521	2h 33m Charlotte	CLT 10:11 → SAT 12:21AA 2889	7h 15m	99%	88%
Delta Details →	DCA 09:00 → ATL 10:50DL 455	2h 55m Atlanta	ATL 13:45 → SAT 15:10DL 2009	7h 10m	98%	87%
Delta Details →	DCA 06:07 → JFK 07:30DL 5802 · flown by Republic	1h 00m New York	JFK 08:30 → SAT 11:42DL 1166	6h 35m	96%	87%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON