Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 6:00 AM ET · 3 nonstops

Tomorrow: OH 5241 at 12:48 is the safest bet, 17% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 18–28%.

Safest bet that day OH 5241 DCA 12:48 → SAV 14:58 · 17% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 5384 DCA 20:01 → SAV 21:57 · 28% chance 15+ min late · usually 56% on time

Against a calm day 21% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 17% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


OH 5241 PSA	DCA 12:48	SAV 14:58	17%	5%	1.3%	no record
AA 5260 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DCA 08:04	SAV 10:28	18%	4%	1.3%	88%
AA 5384 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DCA 20:01	SAV 21:57	28%	9%	1.0%	56%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON