Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 9:00 AM ET · 5 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 5 nonstops are 7–17% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 4672 DCA 19:45 → SDF 21:40 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 72% on time Riskiest AA 9752 DCA 20:08 → SDF 21:54 · 17% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 11% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 12% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 4672 American flown by Republic Flight history →	DCA 19:45	SDF 21:40	7%	4%	0.7%	72%
YX 4802 Republic	DCA 08:44	SDF 10:57	7%	2%	0.6%	no record
YX 4511 Republic	DCA 09:07	SDF 11:15	8%	2%	0.6%	no record
AA 5602 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DCA 15:19	SDF 17:08	15%	5%	0.8%	77%
AA 9752 American	DCA 20:08	SDF 21:54	17%	6%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON