Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6 looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 7–16% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day UA 369 DCA 07:55 → SFO 10:50 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time Riskiest AS 7 DCA 18:59 → SFO 21:56 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 69% on time

Against a calm day 12% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 12% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 369 United Flight history →	DCA 07:55	SFO 10:50	7%	2%	0.6%	88%
UA 2166 United	DCA 18:00	SFO 21:07	12%	4%	0.6%	no record
AS 7 Alaska Flight history →	DCA 18:59	SFO 21:56	16%	5%	0.7%	69%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	DCA 06:00 → MSP 07:35DL 1193	1h 49m Minneapolis	MSP 09:24 → SFO 11:32DL 2078	8h 32m	99%	90%
Delta Details →	DCA 07:45 → MSP 09:25DL 1493	1h 35m Minneapolis	MSP 11:00 → SFO 13:09DL 2074	8h 24m	97%	89%
Delta Details →	DCA 08:00 → ATL 09:51DL 343	2h 12m Atlanta	ATL 12:03 → SFO 13:52DL 672	8h 52m	96%	87%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON