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Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tue, Oct 6: Delta via LAX, leaving 16:45, is the safest bet: 90% chance of reaching San Jose on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Jose on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Jose is 3 h behind Washington). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → DCA 16:45 → LAX 19:19DL 392 2h 15m Los Angeles LAX 21:34 → SJC 22:58DL 3883 · flown by SkyWest 9h 13m 96% 90%
DeltaDetails → DCA 06:00 → MSP 07:35DL 1193 2h 30m Minneapolis MSP 10:05 → SJC 12:01DL 2383 9h 01m 99% 90%
DeltaDetails → DCA 06:00 → ATL 07:41DL 410 2h 02m Atlanta ATL 09:43 → SJC 11:30DL 809 8h 30m 98% 89%
AmericanDetails → DCA 04:57 → DFW 07:05AA 2007 2h 04m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 09:09 → SJC 10:52AA 2046 8h 55m 98% 89%
UnitedDetails → DCA 06:30 → ORD 07:46UA 1793 1h 30m Chicago ORD 09:16 → SJC 11:46UA 307 8h 16m 98% 89%
AmericanDetails → DCA 06:59 → DFW 09:25AA 1839 2h 48m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 12:13 → SJC 13:57AA 2834 9h 58m 99% 88%
DeltaDetails → DCA 16:00 → ATL 18:06DL 360 2h 53m Atlanta ATL 20:59 → SJC 22:49DL 933 9h 49m 97% 87%
AmericanDetails → DCA 07:49 → PHX 09:39AA 2006 1h 48m Phoenix PHX 11:27 → SJC 13:26AA 3940 · flown by Envoy 8h 37m 96% 86%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON