tailodds FORECAST
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Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 90% chance of reaching Salt Lake City on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 75% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
DL 820 Delta Flight history → DCA 17:45 SLC 20:41 13% 3% 0.6% 76%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Salt Lake City on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Salt Lake City is 2 h behind Washington). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → DCA 08:15 → OMA 10:13DL 5608 · flown by Republic 2h 26m Omaha OMA 12:39 → SLC 14:24DL 3815 · flown by SkyWest 8h 09m 98% 95%
DeltaDetails → DCA 09:39 → CVG 11:16DL 5229 · flown by Endeavor 2h 50m Hebron CVG 14:06 → SLC 15:56DL 464 8h 17m 99% 92%
DeltaDetails → DCA 07:45 → MSP 09:25DL 1493 3h 04m Minneapolis MSP 12:29 → SLC 14:19DL 2651 8h 34m 99% 91%
DeltaDetails → DCA 06:00 → ATL 07:41DL 410 2h 29m Atlanta ATL 10:10 → SLC 12:10DL 387 8h 10m 98% 91%
DeltaDetails → DCA 06:07 → JFK 07:30DL 5802 · flown by Republic 3h 44m New York JFK 11:14 → SLC 14:21DL 917 10h 14m 100% 90%
DeltaDetails → DCA 06:00 → MSP 07:35DL 1193 1h 17m Minneapolis MSP 08:52 → SLC 10:44DL 8801 6h 44m 96% 90%
DeltaDetails → DCA 10:16 → ATL 12:06DL 926 3h 14m Atlanta ATL 15:20 → SLC 17:18DL 526 9h 02m 99% 89%
DeltaDetails → DCA 06:00 → BOS 07:45DL 5710 · flown by Republic 3h 30m Boston BOS 11:15 → SLC 14:20DL 464 10h 20m 100% 89%
Tight connection: often missed
AlaskaDetails → DCA 08:00 → SEA 10:58AS 1 53m Seattle SEA 11:51 → SLC 15:04AS 733 9h 04m 75% 41%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON