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Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 3:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tue, Oct 6: American via DFW, leaving 06:59, is the safest bet: 89% chance of reaching Santa Ana on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Santa Ana on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Santa Ana is 3 h behind Washington). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
AmericanDetails → DCA 06:59 → DFW 09:25AA 1839 3h 49m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 13:14 → SNA 14:38AA 1933 10h 39m 100% 89%
AmericanDetails → DCA 04:57 → DFW 07:05AA 2007 2h 32m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 09:37 → SNA 11:15AA 1939 9h 18m 98% 88%
AmericanDetails → DCA 07:59 → DFW 10:31AA 1978 1h 54m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 12:25 → SNA 13:59AA 2465 9h 00m 98% 88%
UnitedDetails → DCA 06:00 → IAH 08:13UA 1450 1h 17m Houston IAH 09:30 → SNA 10:59UA 1383 7h 59m 98% 87%
AmericanDetails → DCA 09:59 → DFW 12:09AA 795 2h 27m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 14:36 → SNA 15:55AA 2659 8h 56m 99% 87%
DeltaDetails → DCA 06:00 → DTW 07:29DL 2869 1h 56m Detroit DTW 09:25 → SNA 11:05DL 1857 8h 05m 98% 87%
AmericanDetails → DCA 12:02 → DFW 14:26AA 1623 1h 58m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 16:24 → SNA 17:51AA 3223 8h 49m 98% 86%
UnitedDetails → DCA 07:55 → SFO 10:50UA 369 1h 29m San Francisco SFO 12:19 → SNA 14:23UA 2441 9h 28m 99% 86%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON