tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: American via Charlotte, leaving 06:06, is the safest bet: 72% chance of reaching Sarasota/Bradenton on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 74% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
AA 2584 American Flight history → DCA 08:59 SRQ 11:53 20% 5% 3.2% 77%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Sarasota/Bradenton on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → DCA 06:00 → ATL 07:41DL 410 2h 24m Atlanta ATL 10:05 → SRQ 11:44DL 3104 5h 44m 99% 86%
DeltaDetails → DCA 10:16 → ATL 12:06DL 926 2h 50m Atlanta ATL 14:56 → SRQ 16:34DL 3115 6h 18m 99% 85%
DeltaDetails → DCA 06:00 → MSP 07:35DL 1193 2h 02m Minneapolis MSP 09:37 → SRQ 13:49DL 478 7h 49m 99% 84%
DeltaDetails → DCA 12:27 → ATL 14:15DL 380 3h 57m Atlanta ATL 18:12 → SRQ 19:50DL 3109 7h 23m 98% 83%
DeltaDetails → DCA 19:31 → ATL 21:24DL 1007 1h 43m Atlanta ATL 23:07 → SRQ 00:45 +1DL 2997 5h 14m 95% 81%
UnitedDetails → DCA 08:25 → ORD 09:43UA 1061 1h 27m Chicago ORD 11:10 → SRQ 15:12UA 2287 6h 47m 96% 80%
AmericanDetails → DCA 06:06 → CLT 07:37AA 1521 2h 57m Charlotte CLT 10:34 → SRQ 12:39AA 1452 6h 33m 100% 78%
AmericanDetails → DCA 08:30 → CLT 10:13AA 1518 3h 45m Charlotte CLT 13:58 → SRQ 15:54AA 2143 7h 24m 97% 70%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → DCA 08:15 → LGA 09:33DL 5772 · flown by Republic 55m New York LGA 10:28 → SRQ 13:33DL 2412 5h 18m 74% 61%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON