Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 5:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6 looks like a normal day here: all 7 nonstops are 8–16% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day WN 391 DCA 08:04 → STL 09:18 · 8% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 3066 DCA 14:56 → STL 16:11 · 16% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 12% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 12% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 391 Southwest	DCA 08:04	STL 09:18	8%	1%	0.5%	no record
YX 4436 Republic	DCA 08:50	STL 10:18	11%	2%	0.6%	no record
YX 4680 Republic	DCA 20:00	STL 21:27	11%	3%	0.6%	no record
WN 1678 Southwest	DCA 12:00	STL 13:09	11%	2%	0.5%	no record
WN 2788 Southwest	DCA 15:11	STL 16:22	12%	2%	0.5%	no record
WN 4166 Southwest	DCA 19:23	STL 20:27	15%	3%	0.5%	no record
AA 3066 American	DCA 14:56	STL 16:11	16%	6%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON