Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 10:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 11–19% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day YX 4555 DCA 15:41 → SYR 17:15 · 11% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 5456 DCA 22:39 → SYR 23:54 · 19% chance 15+ min late · usually 74% on time

Against a calm day 15% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 16% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


YX 4555 Republic	DCA 15:41	SYR 17:15	11%	3%	0.7%	no record
MQ 4223 Envoy	DCA 10:00	SYR 11:21	14%	3%	0.7%	no record
OH 5170 PSA	DCA 10:18	SYR 11:48	16%	5%	0.7%	no record
AA 5456 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DCA 22:39	SYR 23:54	19%	5%	0.8%	74%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON