Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: WN 1983 at 06:59 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 22–28%.

Safest bet that day WN 1983 DCA 06:59 → TPA 09:38 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 544 DCA 18:51 → TPA 21:18 · 28% chance 15+ min late · usually 59% on time

Against a calm day 15% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 8% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1983 Southwest	DCA 06:59	TPA 09:38	5%	1%	1.3%	no record
AA 1972 American	DCA 08:25	TPA 11:18	8%	3%	1.8%	no record
AA 3126 American	DCA 10:18	TPA 12:54	12%	4%	1.3%	no record
WN 2790 Southwest	DCA 13:14	TPA 15:37	14%	4%	2.1%	no record
AA 1944 American Flight history →	DCA 16:47	TPA 19:23	22%	8%	2.7%	58%
AA 544 American Flight history →	DCA 18:51	TPA 21:18	28%	10%	2.3%	59%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON