tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 9:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: American via O'Hare, leaving 06:25, is the safest bet: 83% chance of reaching Tulsa on time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
OH 5497 PSA DCA 13:55 TUL 16:05 16% 6% 0.8% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Tulsa on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Tulsa is 1 h behind Washington). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → DCA 10:58 → IAH 13:19UA 2190 3h 11m Houston IAH 16:30 → TUL 18:08UA 6171 · flown by Mesa 8h 10m 99% 98%
DeltaDetails → DCA 06:00 → ATL 07:41DL 410 3h 19m Atlanta ATL 11:00 → TUL 11:56DL 2620 6h 56m 99% 91%
AmericanDetails → DCA 06:25 → ORD 07:32AA 523 2h 08m Chicago ORD 09:40 → TUL 11:44AA 4135 · flown by Envoy 6h 19m 97% 90%
UnitedDetails → DCA 16:13 → DEN 18:25UA 746 2h 30m Denver DEN 20:55 → TUL 23:47UA 4712 · flown by SkyWest 8h 34m 97% 88%
AmericanDetails → DCA 08:30 → CLT 10:13AA 1518 2h 31m Charlotte CLT 12:44 → TUL 14:13AA 2657 6h 43m 96% 87%
AmericanDetails → DCA 13:59 → LGA 15:31AA 4730 · flown by Republic 3h 58m New York LGA 19:29 → TUL 22:08AA 4341 · flown by Republic 9h 09m 97% 87%
DeltaDetails → DCA 12:27 → ATL 14:15DL 380 2h 46m Atlanta ATL 17:01 → TUL 18:04DL 2837 6h 37m 99% 87%
AmericanDetails → DCA 04:53 → DFW 07:19AA 2007 3h 34m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 10:53 → TUL 12:09AA 2352 8h 16m 100% 84%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON