Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 11:37 am at Washington); 1 already left

Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 10:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 24–27% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops today


AA 5484 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DCA 19:46	TYS 21:33	24%	9%	0.6%	59%
OH 5224 PSA	DCA 15:51	TYS 17:32	27%	8%	0.5%	no record

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Knoxville on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	DCA 16:00 → ATL 18:06DL 360	3h 19m Atlanta	ATL 21:25 → TYS 22:26DL 2467	6h 26m	98%	87%
Delta Details →	DCA 12:27 → ATL 14:15DL 380	2h 01m Atlanta	ATL 16:16 → TYS 17:16DL 2571	4h 49m	98%	86%
Delta Details →	DCA 18:30 → ATL 20:35DL 850	2h 15m Atlanta	ATL 22:50 → TYS 23:50DL 3072	5h 20m	94%	85%
United Details →	DCA 13:00 → ORD 14:18UA 511	3h 43m Chicago	ORD 18:01 → TYS 20:44UA 795	7h 44m	98%	83%
American Details →	DCA 14:07 → DFW 16:13AA 1177	2h 18m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 18:31 → TYS 21:43AA 5346 · flown by PSA	7h 36m	96%	78%
Delta Details →	DCA 17:29 → DTW 19:15DL 1454	1h 08m Detroit	DTW 20:23 → TYS 22:02DL 5138 · flown by Endeavor	4h 33m	82%	75%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON