tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 10:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 15–16% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
MQ 4110 Envoy DCA 10:52 VPS 12:12 15% 5% 1.3% no record
MQ 3622 Envoy DCA 10:26 VPS 12:07 16% 4% 1.3% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Valparaiso on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Valparaiso is 1 h behind Washington). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → DCA 06:00 → ATL 07:41DL 410 3h 04m Atlanta ATL 10:45 → VPS 11:02DL 2048 6h 02m 99% 91%
DeltaDetails → DCA 08:00 → ATL 09:51DL 343 3h 59m Atlanta ATL 13:50 → VPS 14:00DL 2832 7h 00m 99% 91%
DeltaDetails → DCA 10:16 → ATL 12:06DL 926 3h 38m Atlanta ATL 15:44 → VPS 16:01DL 2170 6h 45m 100% 90%
DeltaDetails → DCA 18:30 → ATL 20:35DL 850 2h 40m Atlanta ATL 23:15 → VPS 23:29DL 3097 5h 59m 95% 87%
DeltaDetails → DCA 07:45 → MSP 09:25DL 1493 1h 10m Minneapolis MSP 10:35 → VPS 13:13DL 2462 6h 28m 95% 86%
DeltaDetails → DCA 19:32 → ATL 21:24DL 1007 1h 42m Atlanta ATL 23:06 → VPS 23:23DL 2745 4h 51m 93% 85%
AmericanDetails → DCA 06:08 → CLT 07:39AA 1521 3h 50m Charlotte CLT 11:29 → VPS 12:11AA 5165 · flown by PSA 7h 03m 100% 83%
AmericanDetails → DCA 04:53 → DFW 07:20AA 2007 2h 10m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 09:30 → VPS 11:28AA 2460 7h 35m 96% 80%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON