Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: one nonstop, AA 3452 at 19:57, with a 15% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


AA 3452 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DCA 19:57	XNA 21:51	15%	4%	0.8%	82%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Fayetteville/Springdale/ on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Fayetteville/Springdale/ is 1 h behind Washington). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	DCA 07:43 → ORD 08:54AA 2633	2h 52m Chicago	ORD 11:46 → XNA 13:39AA 4028 · flown by Envoy	6h 56m	100%	89%
American Details →	DCA 06:59 → DFW 09:25AA 1839	3h 46m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 13:11 → XNA 14:30AA 3803 · flown by Envoy	8h 31m	99%	88%
Delta Details →	DCA 12:23 → DTW 14:00DL 2476	1h 52m Detroit	DTW 15:52 → XNA 17:05DL 4889 · flown by Endeavor	5h 42m	97%	88%
American Details →	DCA 06:06 → CLT 07:37AA 1521	3h 08m Charlotte	CLT 10:45 → XNA 12:01AA 5446 · flown by PSA	6h 55m	100%	88%
American Details →	DCA 09:59 → DFW 12:09AA 795	2h 20m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 14:29 → XNA 15:46AA 3840 · flown by Envoy	6h 47m	99%	87%
Delta Details →	DCA 10:16 → ATL 12:06DL 926	3h 51m Atlanta	ATL 15:57 → XNA 16:50DL 5128 · flown by Endeavor	7h 34m	100%	87%
American Details →	DCA 07:20 → LGA 08:44AA 4403 · flown by Republic	3h 37m New York	LGA 12:21 → XNA 14:23AA 4472 · flown by Republic	8h 03m	100%	86%
American Details →	DCA 12:02 → DFW 14:26AA 1623	2h 12m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 16:38 → XNA 18:00AA 3693 · flown by Envoy	6h 58m	99%	85%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	DCA 09:59 → LGA 11:25AA 4491 · flown by Republic	56m New York	LGA 12:21 → XNA 14:23AA 4472 · flown by Republic	5h 24m	69%	60%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON