Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 6:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: WN 4729 at 08:53 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 8–18%.

Safest bet that day WN 4729 DEN 08:53 → ABQ 10:13 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 484 DEN 19:20 → ABQ 20:44 · 18% chance 15+ min late · usually 73% on time

Against a calm day 10% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 10% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4729 Southwest	DEN 08:53	ABQ 10:13	5%	1%	0.4%	no record
UA 1733 United	DEN 08:00	ABQ 09:29	6%	2%	0.5%	no record
UA 5880 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DEN 21:10	ABQ 22:54	8%	3%	0.5%	84%
OO 4728 SkyWest	DEN 15:45	ABQ 17:17	8%	5%	0.5%	no record
UA 476 United	DEN 11:16	ABQ 12:45	9%	3%	0.5%	no record
WN 983 Southwest	DEN 14:43	ABQ 16:05	10%	2%	0.4%	no record
UA 1594 United	DEN 13:57	ABQ 15:25	11%	3%	0.5%	no record
WN 123 Southwest	DEN 21:00	ABQ 22:19	13%	3%	0.5%	no record
UA 484 United Flight history →	DEN 19:20	ABQ 20:44	18%	4%	0.5%	73%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON