Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 2:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 19–25% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day WN 450 DEN 12:20 → ALB 17:53 · 19% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 3801 DEN 16:33 → ALB 22:01 · 25% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 22% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 21% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 450 Southwest	DEN 12:20	ALB 17:53	19%	4%	0.5%	no record
UA 1662 United Flight history →	DEN 17:42	ALB 23:30	24%	6%	0.5%	69%
WN 3801 Southwest	DEN 16:33	ALB 22:01	25%	5%	0.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON