Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 15–16% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


UA 5233 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DEN 14:10	AMA 16:43	15%	3%	0.6%	83%
UA 5494 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DEN 21:05	AMA 23:41	16%	3%	0.6%	70%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Amarillo on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Amarillo is 1 h ahead of Denver). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	DEN 06:25 → DFW 09:33AA 3285	3h 37m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 13:10 → AMA 14:26AA 3383 · flown by Envoy	7h 01m	99%	89%
American Details →	DEN 10:38 → DFW 13:40AA 1756	3h 37m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 17:17 → AMA 18:38AA 3789 · flown by Envoy	7h 00m	97%	87%
American Details →	DEN 07:54 → DFW 11:02AA 852	3h 24m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 14:26 → AMA 15:44AA 3613 · flown by Envoy	6h 50m	97%	87%
American Details →	DEN 12:39 → DFW 15:47AA 2359	3h 11m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 18:58 → AMA 20:22AA 3990 · flown by Envoy	6h 43m	98%	87%
American Details →	DEN 15:11 → DFW 18:21AA 420	1h 43m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 20:04 → AMA 21:50AA 3607 · flown by Envoy	5h 39m	91%	83%
United Details →	DEN 05:00 → IAH 08:32UA 320	58m Houston	IAH 09:30 → AMA 11:21UA 4821 · flown by CommuteAir	5h 21m	95%	83%
United Details →	DEN 13:30 → IAH 17:04UA 1829	3h 30m Houston	IAH 20:34 → AMA 22:30UA 4839 · flown by CommuteAir	8h 00m	99%	82%
American Details →	DEN 16:40 → DFW 19:41AA 1832	1h 42m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 21:23 → AMA 22:49AA 2265	5h 09m	89%	68%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON