Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 10:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 8 nonstops are 6–10% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day UA 5444 DEN 07:45 → ASE 08:46 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 86% on time Riskiest UA 5769 DEN 11:18 → ASE 12:26 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 74% on time

Against a calm day 9% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 9% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 5444 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DEN 07:45	ASE 08:46	6%	3%	0.9%	86%
UA 5781 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DEN 20:25	ASE 21:26	8%	3%	1.0%	78%
UA 5775 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DEN 17:25	ASE 18:29	9%	3%	1.2%	72%
UA 5771 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DEN 13:40	ASE 14:44	9%	4%	1.0%	73%
UA 5782 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DEN 09:25	ASE 10:22	10%	3%	0.9%	80%
UA 5779 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DEN 19:10	ASE 20:11	10%	3%	1.0%	68%
UA 5697 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DEN 16:22	ASE 17:26	10%	3%	1.3%	63%
UA 5769 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DEN 11:18	ASE 12:26	10%	4%	1.0%	74%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON