Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 1:00 PM ET · 16 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: DL 341 at 05:45 is the safest bet, 2% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 12–23%.

Safest bet that day DL 341 DEN 05:45 → ATL 10:44 · 2% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest WN 479 DEN 18:12 → ATL 23:14 · 23% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 13% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 10% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 341 Delta Flight history →	DEN 05:45	ATL 10:44	2%	2%	0.6%	94%
DL 302 Delta Flight history →	DEN 00:40	ATL 05:42	5%	2%	0.6%	92%
DL 431 Delta Flight history →	DEN 07:15	ATL 12:11	5%	3%	0.6%	93%
DL 346 Delta Flight history →	DEN 10:52	ATL 15:52	9%	3%	0.6%	80%
DL 995 Delta Flight history →	DEN 12:02	ATL 17:04	9%	3%	0.6%	86%
UA 2806 United	DEN 10:08	ATL 15:20	10%	3%	0.5%	no record
DL 706 Delta Flight history →	DEN 14:10	ATL 19:16	10%	4%	0.6%	83%
DL 957 Delta Flight history →	DEN 15:10	ATL 20:22	11%	4%	0.6%	85%
DL 840 Delta Flight history →	DEN 16:35	ATL 21:53	12%	4%	0.6%	82%
UA 1671 United Flight history →	DEN 13:23	ATL 18:26	15%	4%	0.5%	79%
UA 1305 United Flight history →	DEN 17:48	ATL 22:57	15%	4%	0.5%	72%
WN 4092 Southwest	DEN 11:42	ATL 16:42	18%	2%	0.4%	no record
F9 3600 Frontier Flight history →	DEN 09:58	ATL 15:08	19%	5%	0.6%	75%
WN 2145 Southwest	DEN 15:13	ATL 20:08	22%	4%	0.4%	no record
F9 1450 Frontier Flight history →	DEN 19:16	ATL 00:30	22%	8%	0.7%	65%
WN 479 Southwest	DEN 18:12	ATL 23:14	23%	4%	0.4%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON