Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · 15 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 731 at 07:53 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 13–16%.

Safest bet that day WN 731 DEN 07:53 → AUS 11:00 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 1445 DEN 20:01 → AUS 23:08 · 16% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 11% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 10% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 731 Southwest	DEN 07:53	AUS 11:00	5%	1%	0.5%	no record
UA 456 United Flight history →	DEN 08:00	AUS 11:15	6%	2%	0.5%	95%
WN 153 Southwest	DEN 09:39	AUS 12:51	6%	1%	0.5%	no record
UA 8126 United	DEN 09:33	AUS 12:54	8%	2%	0.5%	no record
DL 3876 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DEN 09:30	AUS 12:45	9%	3%	0.5%	85%
UA 2270 United Flight history →	DEN 13:44	AUS 16:58	11%	3%	0.5%	83%
WN 1440 Southwest	DEN 12:43	AUS 15:47	11%	2%	0.5%	no record
WN 1275 Southwest	DEN 11:22	AUS 14:31	11%	2%	0.5%	no record
UA 1899 United Flight history →	DEN 15:35	AUS 18:48	13%	4%	0.5%	78%
DL 3669 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DEN 19:30	AUS 22:51	13%	3%	0.5%	70%
WN 4732 Southwest	DEN 16:05	AUS 19:13	14%	2%	0.5%	no record
UA 1942 United Flight history →	DEN 18:39	AUS 21:57	14%	4%	0.6%	75%
F9 1816 Frontier Flight history →	DEN 16:11	AUS 19:27	14%	5%	0.6%	80%
UA 1943 United Flight history →	DEN 20:27	AUS 23:44	15%	4%	0.6%	67%
WN 1445 Southwest	DEN 20:01	AUS 23:08	16%	3%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON