Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 9:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: one nonstop, UA 1992 at 09:47, with a 10% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


UA 1992 United	DEN 09:47	AVL 14:53	10%	3%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Asheville on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Asheville is 2 h ahead of Denver). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	DEN 00:40 → ATL 05:42DL 302	2h 33m Atlanta	ATL 08:15 → AVL 09:16DL 3077	6h 36m	99%	91%
Delta Details →	DEN 05:45 → ATL 10:44DL 341	3h 01m Atlanta	ATL 13:45 → AVL 14:53DL 3099	7h 08m	99%	88%
American Details →	DEN 07:16 → ORD 11:00AA 2771	2h 39m Chicago	ORD 13:39 → AVL 16:34AA 3792 · flown by Envoy	7h 18m	97%	86%
Delta Details →	DEN 07:57 → ATL 12:59DL 995	3h 10m Atlanta	ATL 16:09 → AVL 17:17DL 3101	7h 20m	100%	85%
Delta Details →	DEN 14:10 → ATL 19:16DL 706	3h 30m Atlanta	ATL 22:46 → AVL 23:46DL 3116	7h 36m	99%	83%
Delta Details →	DEN 10:52 → ATL 15:52DL 346	1h 27m Atlanta	ATL 17:19 → AVL 18:28DL 5261 · flown by Endeavor	5h 36m	96%	82%
Delta Details →	DEN 07:10 → LGA 12:52DL 398	3h 50m New York	LGA 16:42 → AVL 18:38DL 4665 · flown by Endeavor	9h 28m	97%	80%
American Details →	DEN 06:41 → CLT 12:04AA 573	1h 45m Charlotte	CLT 13:49 → AVL 14:45AA 5588 · flown by PSA	6h 04m	92%	74%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON