Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 11:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Tomorrow: UA 447 at 10:59 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 14–22%.

Safest bet that day UA 447 DEN 10:59 → BHM 14:46 · 10% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 211 DEN 18:02 → BHM 21:29 · 22% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 15% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 13% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 447 United	DEN 10:59	BHM 14:46	10%	3%	0.5%	no record
WN 960 Southwest	DEN 11:16	BHM 14:56	14%	2%	0.5%	no record
OO 4703 SkyWest	DEN 17:34	BHM 21:34	14%	3%	0.5%	no record
WN 211 Southwest	DEN 18:02	BHM 21:29	22%	3%	0.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON